Sunday, April 17, 2016

Annual performance report for the year ended April 18, 2016

Disclaimer: There may be errors in my calculations. The purpose of this article is to present the performance of my portfolio. This article does not represent advice to buy or sell any stocks. I may, at any time, sell some or all of the stocks that were presented or appeared in this article.

Sup guys. I guess it’s time to let you guys know how the Greedy Dragon portfolio has been doing seeing as how it has been more than a year since my last performance report. I actually planned on releasing performance reports every 6 months for the portfolio, but things have been so damn depressing that I lost any mood to calculate my losses. But I decided that the time for procrastinating was over, as only a bitch would hide under a rock until he was in the black again. It is time to face the fucking music. Besides, my investing story will be a whole lot more romantic if I come from behind and beat the market somewhere down the road.

Update on the Greedy Dragon portfolio: I recently sold my stake in Hong Leong Industries and took a position in Hua Yang.

For the year (a year and 20+ days to be exact) ended April 18, 2016, the Greedy Dragon portfolio declined from Malaysian Ringgit 200,422.23 to MYR 146,468.09, a 26.92% year-on-year loss. Even if you include the 18% return I earned on the portfolio during the first year and the small return during the first half of the second year, the portfolio is obviously still down (in case anyone was wondering, the portfolio is now 2 and a half years old). I could calculate the portfolio’s IRR, but I don’t feel like doing it right now. It’s late, and I don’t want to go through the hassle of looking up how much funds I withdrew and added back to the portfolio over its life. Just assume it’s down, and that I fucked up. The following table presents my current portfolio:

Purchase price
Current share price
Capital gain/loss
*Cumulative dividends per share (after taxes and fees)
Total return
Current value of holding converted to MYR
First Republic Bank
US$ 46.19 (80 shares)
 $        70.82
 $              0.12
National Resource Partners
Average US$41.1 (300 shares at US$11.19, 300 shares at US$ 7.8, 300 shares at US$ 6.83, 600 shares at US$ 5.65, 500 shares at US$ 4.57, 500 shares at US$ 3.1, 750 shares at US$1.98 and 1,000 shares at US$1.02)
 $        10.16
 $              1.08
Alpha Natural Resources
Average US$1.90  (1,100 shares at $2.23 and 1,000 shares at $1.54)
Fuck me
Fuck me
Fuck me
Northern Oil & Gas
Average US$5.72(250 shares at US$6.50, 200 shares at US$ 8.4, 250 shares at US$6.7, 300 shares at US$5.6, 250 shares at US$4.56 and 400 shares at US$4.09)
 $          4.78

Cloudpek Energy
Average US$5.08 (350 shares at US$ 5.93 and 350 shares at US$ 4.22)
 $          2.04

Average MYR8.76 (1,000 shares at MYR 9.02 and 500 shares at MYR8.24)
MYR 9.17
 MYR        0.24
Oasis petroleum
Average US$8.61 (200 shares at US$8.7, 150 shares at US$8.49)
 $          8.63

Average US$4.45 (300 shares at US$5.26 and 400 shares at US$3.85)
 $          4.55
 $            0.013
US$ 24.93 (60 shares)
 $        28.69

Hua Yang
MYR 1.87 (3,000 shares)
 MYR    1.82



Net portfolio value


Notes to the table

Total return excludes transaction cost & forex gains/losses

The USD/Ringgit exchange rate is taken from Bloomberg (3.903) and rounded down to 3.9.

For certain stocks presented in the table, the cumulative dividends per share underestimate the actual cumulative dividends per share I would have received if I bought my entire position from the start instead of building the position over time. This is the case as I calculate cumulative dividends per share by dividing total dividends received by current number of shares.

Banco Santander’s total return is actually a little higher as I opted for shares when they last had a SCRIP dividend.

Natural Resource Partners underwent a 1:10 reverse stock split. The average purchase price and the cumulative dividend per share are adjusted to reflect the reverse stock split. All purchases were made before the reverse split.

The following table presents the stocks that I sold during the past year:

Purchase price
Price sold
Dividends per share (after taxes)
Total return (excluding transaction cost & forex gains/losses)
Average US$ 93.68 (50 shares)
US$ 150.61
US$ 0.08
National Bankshares
US$ 35.8 (130 shares)
US$ 30.67
US$ 1.30
Average HKD 22.97 (500 shares at HKD 33.85, 500 shares at HKD 25.3 and 1,000 shares at HKD 16.36)
Average HKD 35.12  (1,000 shares at HKD 32.25 and 1,000 shares at HKD 38)
HKD 0.05
National Bank of Greece
US$ 2.95 (700 shares)
US$ 0.97

Banco De Chile
US$ 72.82 (50 shares)
US$ 65.04
US$ 5.17
Sandridge Energy
US$1.85 (1,000 shares)
US$ 0.46

Comstock Resources
Average US$3.82 (400 shares at US$5.83, 400 shares at US$3.6, 350 shares at US$3.4 and 500 shares at US$2.67 )
Average US$2.33 (450 shares at US$ 3.9 and 1,200 shares at US$ 1.75)
US$ 32.82 (50 shares)
US$ 38.03

Mongolia Growth Group
CAD 1.60 (2,000 shares)
CAD 0.68

MYR 1.39 (9,000 shares)
MYR 1.58
MYR 0.14
Hong Leong Industries
MYR 4.4 (1000 shares)
MYR 5.93
MYR 0.29
LRR Energy
US$ 7.15 (300 shares)
US$ 7.75
 US$ 0.1

Notes to the table
Total return excludes transaction cost & forex gains/losses

For certain stocks presented in the table, the dividends per share underestimate the actual dividends per share I would have received if I bought my entire position from the start instead of building the position over time. This is the case as I calculate dividends per share by dividing total dividends received by current number of shares.

If I were to guess what went wrong, it was that I was slow in getting rid of stocks when they got significantly impaired. I also made some dumb fucking decisions by investing in a few risky companies. Another mistake was increasing my bets on certain stocks too many times, too quickly. As Blaise Pascal once said “All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone.” To be honest, I didn’t know who Blaise Pascal was. I heard the quote from mobster Arnold Rothstein on Boardwalk Empire. Anyway, I definitely should have been more structured in my approach to buying more of a stock when its price goes down. Looking back at my transactions, there were times when I increased my bet on a stock when the stock didn’t really go down all that much. I could have waited for bigger discounts before buying more. I also noticed that I increased my position in certain stocks quite a few times within a short period of time. The prudent course of action was, once I already had a significant position in the stock, to wait for more earnings reports and other useful information before deciding to buy more. You can read the more specific mistakes in my “Investment screw ups (as in my screw ups)” series. Here’s part I and part II.

I’m currently not really satisfied with my portfolio as the weighting of natural resource stocks is too high for my liking. I plan to reduce some of my natural resource positions after they recover a little more (I just read that the Doha meeting ended without an agreement to freeze production, so that’s kinda bad for my plan). Certain European banks look absolutely delicious right now. There are also a couple of Chinese/Hong Kong property firms that generate income from both property development and rental of investment properties that I’m looking at right now. If you guys know anything about me, it’s the rental income that I’m really interested in. Well, that does it for the performance report. Thank you for reading. Take care and stay rational.