Monday, October 3, 2016

Semi-annual (give or take a couple of weeks) performance report for the year ended September 30, 2016



Disclaimer: There may be errors in my calculations. The purpose of this article is to present the performance of my portfolio. This article does not represent advice to buy or sell any stocks. I may, at any time, sell some or all of the stocks that were presented or appeared in this article.

Aight my value investing gangstas, it’s time for the semi-annual performance report for the Greedy Dragon portfolio. Yay! The last time I reported on the performance of the portfolio, I was mired in shit. But most of the shit has been shoveled now. All this time I’ve been hustlin trying to position myself to make that paper, and I hope that it’s finally the time to rake in the fucking money.      

Since the last performance report in April this year, the portfolio increased from Ringgit Malaysia (RM/MYR) 146,468.09 to RM179,518.94, a gain of 22.65%. The portfolio generated a total return of 12.28% since inception about 3 years ago. While the return might appear to be pretty weak, the markets have been terrible the past 3 years. From August 29, 2013 to September 30, 2016, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI index was negative 3% (this excludes dividends). I bought the first stock for this portfolio on August 29, 2013. I know that a weak market is awesome for value investors to pick up quality stocks on the cheap and set themselves up for a payday down the road. However, the markets weren’t awesome for me as I fucked up quite a bit, and I experienced a significant amount of permanent losses. Also, if you guys remember, I took out some money from the portfolio at the end of the first year. So, the 12.28% return is based on the capital after the RM40,000 withdrawal. The following table presents the current holdings of the Greedy Dragon portfolio as at September 30, 2016:




Purchase price
 Current price
Capital gains
 Cumulative dividends per share*
Total return
Current value of holdings in RM
National Resource Partners*
Average US$41.1 (250 shares)
                      $27.90
-32.12%
 $              1.58
-28.28%
28,866
Alpha Natural Resources
Average US$1.90  (2,100 shares)
Bankrupt
Fuck me
Fuck me
Fuck me
0
Northern Oil & Gas
Average US$5.09(2,150 shares)
                         $2.68
-47.35%

-47.35%
23846
Cloudpeak Energy
Average US$5.08 (700 shares)
                        $5.44
7.09%

7.09%
15,759
Maybank
Average MYR8.46 (2,500 shares)
MYR 7.50
-11.35%
 MYR       0.24
-8.51%
18,750
Oasis petroleum
Average US$7.86 (600 shares)
                      $11.47
45.93%

45.93%
28,481
Santander*
Average US$4.45 (700 shares)
                       $4.41
-0.90%
 $           0.094
1.22%
12,830
Skechers
US$ 24.93 (60 shares)
                       $22.90
-8.14%

-8.14%
5,686
Hua Yang
MYR 1.87 (3,000 shares)
 MYR1.84                  
-1.60%
 MYR       0.05
0.98%
5,520
Barclays
Average US$8.5 (450 shares)
                         $8.69
2.24%

2.24%
16,184
Kerry Properties
HKD 21.7 (500 shares)
HKD 25.40
17.05%
 HKD        0.55
19.57%
6,604
Cash





22777
Borrowings





5,660
Net portfolio value





179,644.42
  
Notes to the table

Total return excludes transaction cost & forex gains/losses

The USD/Ringgit exchange rate is taken from Bloomberg (4.1385) as at September 30, 2016.

The HKD/Ringgit exchange rate used was 0.52 which is slightly less than the exchange rate of around 0.53 that I got from Bloomberg today (October 3). Unfortunately I didn’t look up the rate on Bloomberg on September 30 because I was a moron.

The cumulative dividends per share are after taxes and fees
For certain stocks presented in the table, the cumulative dividends per share underestimate the actual cumulative dividends per share I would have received if I bought my entire position from the start instead of building the position over time. This is the case as I calculate cumulative dividends per share by dividing total dividends received by current number of shares.

Banco Santander’s total return is actually a little higher as I opted for shares when they last had a SCRIP dividend.

Natural Resource Partners underwent a 1:10 reverse stock split. The average purchase price and the cumulative dividend per share are adjusted to reflect the reverse stock split. All purchases were made before the reverse split.

My exposure to the natural resource sector is pretty high at around 54%. So, I might trim some of my natural resource positions soon. I know that I’ve been saying it like forever, but I really did reduce some of my natural resource positions. It’s just that I also added back to a position in an ass backwards move.   You might also realize that my table depicting my current holdings no longer looks like a fucking disaster that stretches way out of the page. That’s because I removed all the transactions and only displayed the total number of shares in the brackets next to the purchase price of my holdings. If you want to know the transactions related to each holding please send me an e-mail (I don’t know why you would want to know that, but I suppose that different people have different fetishes). The following table presents the stocks that I sold in the period: 


Purchase price
Price sold
Dividends per share (after taxes)
Total return
First Republic Bank
US$ 46.19 (80 shares)
US$71.26
US$ 0.18
54.67%
Northern Oil & Gas (only sold 300 shares
Average US$5.72
US$ 5.6
-2.10%
Natural Resource Partners (only sold 175 shares)
Average US$41.1
Average US$20.3
US$1.33
-47.37%



Notes to the table


 Total return excludes transaction cost & forex gains/losses


For certain stocks presented in the table, the dividends per share underestimate the actual dividends per share I would have received if I bought my entire position from the start instead of building the position over time. This is the case as I calculate dividends per share by dividing total dividends received by current number of shares.

This does it for this semi-annual report. May y’all keep stepping to adversity and get closer to the goal of “fuck you money.” Take care and stay rational.
 



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