Saturday, December 1, 2018

5-year performance or getting bitched out by Mr. Market

Disclaimer: There may be errors in my calculations. The purpose of this article is to present the performance of my portfolio. This article does not represent advice to buy or sell any stocks. I may, at any time, sell some or all of the stocks that were presented or appeared in this article.

Hey guys, how have y’all been? Things got really fucked up, huh? And if you think that the selloff in the general market from fearful motherfuckers who can’t hold on to their 4 inch dicks (when fully erected) were bad, the oil sector is in the fucking toilet. I felt a bit pleased with myself when I finished calculating the returns on the Greedy Dragon portfolio as at 30 September 2018*, I mean an annual internal rate of return of approximately 8.2% over 5-years isn’t great or nothing as it still trailed behind the 12.2% return of the S&P 500. However,t it still was decent considering all my screw ups and painful lessons learned. As at 30 November 2018, the portfolio's 5-year annual internal rate of return plunged to around 4.4%. 

Greedy Dragon Portfolio update: Since 30 September 2018, I sold 350 shares in Oasis Petroleum; 200 shares at US$14.26 and 150 shares at US$14.28. I also sold 1,200 shares in Northern Oil & Gas;  800 shares at US$4.02 and 400 shares at US$4.41. Finally, I sold 2,000 shares in Maybank at RM9.65. In terms of buys, I bought 900 shares in Cloud Peak Energy at US$1.50. I also bought 300 shares in Oasis Petroleum at US$7.30 per share.

However, just within two months everything went to shit as I saw RM40,000 in market value vanish. Anyway, please allow me to present my portfolio on 30 September 2018*, and on 30 November 2018 after some fuckery by Mr. Market (said fuckery may continue well into the future). 

*30 September 2018 marked five years and a month since inception of the Greedy Dragon portfolio; I forgot a bought my first stock for the portfolio somewhere in early September or late July instead of late September.


Greedy Dragon portfolio as at 30 September 2018
Note on tables: Capital gains exclude forex gains/losses and transaction costs.


Average purchase price
Current price
Capital gains
Current value of holdings in MYR
National Resource Partners
US$41.1
US$31.00
-24.6%
25,544
Alpha Natural Resources
US$1.90  
Bankrupt
Fuck me
0
Northern Oil & Gas
US$3.05
US$4.00
-31.1%
52,736
Cloudpeak Energy
US$3.93
US$2.30
-41.5%
15,635
Maybank
MYR8.23
MYR9.79
19.0%
19,580
Oasis petroleum
US$7.81
US$14.18
81.6%
52,579
Skechers
US$21.55
US$27.93
29.6%
17,261
Barclays
US$8.96
U$8.95
-0.1%
24,300
Gamestop
US$25.28
US$15.27
-39.6%
6,291
Qudian
US$9.06
US$5.21
-42.5%
7,513
Magni-Tech
MYR4.63
MYR4.77
3.0%
9,540
Huayang
MYR0.48
MYR0.43
-10.4%
6,450
Cash



15439
Borrowings



11,903
Net portfolio value



241,464.87


I used to display total returns including dividends but won’t be doing that this time around as all the letters informing me of my dividends is in my hometown. It will also take too damn long to calculate it.

Shares sold since inception of portfolio

Average purchase price
Average price sold
Shares sold
Capital gains
Banco Santander
US$4.45
US$6.64
716
49.2%
Maybank
MYR8.23
MYR9.51
3500
15.4%
Hua Yang
MYR1.4
MYR0.80
4000
-42.9%
Kerry Properties
HKD21.7
HKD29.7
500
36.9%
Oasis Petroleum
US$7.81
US$13.46
750
72.3%
Cloudpeak Energy
US$3.17
US$6.14
300
93.7%
Mercadolibre
US$93.68
US$ 150.61
50
60.8%
National Bankshares
US$ 35.8
US$ 30.67
130
-14.3%
Biostime
HKD 22.97
HKD 35.12 
2000
52.9%
National Bank of Greece
US$2.95
US 0.97
700
-67.1%
Banco De Chile
US$ 72.82 50
US$ 65.04
50
-10.7%
Sandridge Energy
US$1.85
US$ 0.46
1000
-75.1%
Comstock Resources
US$3.82
US$2.33
1650
-39.0%
Fossil
US$32.82
US$38.03
50
15.9%
Mongolia Growth Group
CAD1.60
CAD0.68
2000
-57.5%
UOA REIT
MYR1.39
MYR1.58
9000
13.7%
Hong Leong Industries
MYR4.4
MYR5.93
1000
34.8%
LRR Energy
US$7.15
US$7.75
                         300
8.4%
First Republic Bank
US$46.19
US$71.26
80
54.3%
Northern Oil & Gas
US$3.05
US$3.63
4150
19.0%
Natural Resource Partners
US$41.1
US$24.85
225
-39.5%

Greedy Dragon portfolio as at 30 November 2018 (when shit has hit the fan)


Average purchase price
Current price
Capital gains
Current value of holdings in MYR
National Resource Partners
US$41.1
US $37.00
-10.0%
30,710
Alpha Natural Resources
US$1.90 
Bankrupt
Fuck me
0
Northern Oil & Gas
US$3.05
US$2.54
-16.7%
21,082
Cloudpeak Energy
US$3.17
US$0.84
-73.7%
8,836
Oasis petroleum
US$7.81
US$7.14
-8.6%
25,186
Skechers
US$ 21.55
US$27.00
25.3%
16,808
Barclays
US$8.96
US$8.27
-7.7%
22,617
Gamestop
US$25.28
US$13.66
-46.0%
5,669
Qudian
US$9.06
US$5.10
-43.7%
7,408
Magni-Tech
MYR4.63
MYR4.45
-4.0%
8,900
Huayang
RM0.48
MYR0.375
-21.88%
5,625
Cash



62,564
Borrowings



5,000
Net portfolio value



200,904.78
You may have noticed a significant increase in cash. This is due to my recent purchase of a house in my attempt to appear as an adult. I'm not sure exactly how much I will be withdrawing from the portfolio though, but it will be close to RM50,000 to help pay for the down payment of my new house. I guess one good thing about having to raise cash for the down payment is that I trimmed some of my oil-related investments at close to the 52-week high. However, this has nothing to do with skill. It was a last minute decision to sell that happened at the right time. 

Yeah, taking large paper losses is tough, especially when my liquidity is currently stretched. But I have been through much worse in my investing journey, like the great financial crisis or the third or fourth time oil stocks plunged in the past few years. This current bullshit is nothing. I just gotta suck it up and hustle to scrape together capital to keep investing when fear is running rampant in the markets.

It is in these tough times where the real money is made. And although I don’t feel it right now, I know that I should be excited that I have the opportunity to tap into my analytical skills and guts to navigate this chaotic period and emerge stronger at the other end. This is the chance to prove to myself that I am legit, and not some jerk off pretending to be a value investor.  As Omar Devone Little, one of my favorite TV characters ever, once said: “How you expect to run with the wolves come night when you spend all day sparring with the puppies?”

Thank you for following me on my investing journey so far, and I hope you’ll check in from time to time. Take care and stay rational.

1 comment: